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Will the price of olive oil continue to rise? These are the factors that will determine its value


Olive oil is often mentioned in many analyzes and conversations about the inflationary wave in which we find ourselves. The so-called “liquid gold”, of which Spain is the number one producer in the world 44% of global production And exports over 1 million tons (1.07 million tons in the 2021/2022 campaign led to a particularly high rise. Imports as of September 30 were higher than the average of previous years (182.900 tons). If we look at the data on prices from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) , it is estimated that The value of olive oil increased by 14.1% in September of this year compared to the same month of the previous year. In the first nine months of 2022, the price increase was 12.3%. The question many consumers are asking is whether this escalation will continue in the coming weeks. We have to look at the sky…

They noted that “since September 1, 30 liters of water have decreased, and the normal thing is that until December there were 300 liters, but in addition, the situation is aggravated because last year there was very little rain.” Sector Giants: DCOOP . Cooperative Group (1,021.16 million euros of turnover in 2021) headquartered in Antequera (Málaga). They attribute the current situation to two factors: low rainfall and the Market prospectss of production.

Neither of them was fun. Producers also mention other common issues they share with other mainstream producers, such as Additional cost for electricity and fertilizer, Among other supplies. Only in these two concepts, with July data from the Agriculture Department’s “Price Paid Index” prepared by the Department of Agriculture, it was estimated that fertilizer became more expensive at 92.28% and electricity at 99.45%. One of the factors that important companies like DCOOP think is subtracting profitability because many of the inputs are related to the prices of raw materials. However, the biggest problem comes from the weather.

“Transfer” from hospitality to home?

in Diuliuanother giant in the sector in Ibida with a value of 48 million euros in 2021, confirms it «Overall harvest outlook by major producers is not goodwhich will likely have an effect in the form of price increases.” However, they explained that their access to various international markets would allow them to compensate for the poor prospects of some producing countries. “A potential price increase could lead to a Transfer hotel consumption to home »we point out from this Spanish multinational company that they believe, in this context, that this would lead to an increase in the volume of consumption of the so-called “liquid gold”.

“If it continues without rain, the problem is that the olive tree has already bear fruit: this crop had its vegetative growth the previous year and is now struggling to survive. If there is no growth, there will be no harvest.”, about a campaign that will rely on the sky more than ever. Along these lines, the forecast reflects these (pictorial) clouds during the 2022/2023 campaign, which has just begun and will run until September 30 next year. The preliminary estimate of the recently launched campaign from the Ministry of Agriculture, which was published in mid-October, set production for the next campaign at 780 thousand tons. This contrasts with previous campaign data: 1.49 million tons (2021/2022), 1.39 million (2020/2021) and 1.12 million (2019/2020). Moreover, expect Losses in other global producers such as Italy and Portugal. They calculated that prices were already 27% higher than the previous season (2020/2021).

From Food Food Cooperatives, already in September, they put figures for the situation: the 2022/2023 crop was estimated at 900,000 tons and they adapted it to the development of this fall – stinking, for now, in terms of water and temperatures that were so far warm – and reported that European production is Only 1.47 million, which is 35% less (about 800 thousand tons less).

‘Unfavorable situation for the farmer’

They stated in DCOOP that the current situation is “an undesirable situation for a farmer who He is interested in achieving a fairly stable income and production.”. Added to this is the evolution of consumption in the face of rising prices and what they expect from the value of liquid gold is “the healthiest fat a human can consume.” In any case, DCOOP expects to close this year with a higher turnover of around 1,200 million euros. A number that may not be reached in 2023.

For its part, in Diuliu We assume the complex economic context from which Spain and the rest of the large economies have suffered. Increasing the cost of living It is a comprehensive impact factor associated with the increase in production costs and auxiliary materials.” In the opinion of those responsible for this company, with well-known brands such as carbonyl or HojiblancaThe impact of “variable price” will be an item to study in the coming months and they are convinced that their strategy of quality, innovation and branding will allow them to navigate these turbulent waters.

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