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Recovery and election results



A few days ago, Alsina opened an interesting discussion about the flow of inflation data. After the usual irrational comments about whether the important thing is the direction or the size of the falls – downward revisions seem to be one tenth less important than if they were the same size in reverse – someone I don’t remember well, who put the question up in the air about how it might be Voting intentions are affected if the economy improves significantly within a year. The rapid decline in prices can significantly reduce the feeling of economic collapse now prevalent. Will that be enough to overturn the opinion polls now pointing to a victory for the right-wing bloc? The obvious answer is that the state of the economy – it’s the economy, stupid! – Usually critical when re-checking the authorization. Uprisings at the polls, except on rare occasions, have always come from the hand of twisted economic perception. And it seems that this, among other things, is what has recently shifted the balance toward the right of the political spectrum. I am not someone to jump into a puddle on these matters, but as a simple observer of the political, I believe that although the sentiments at the end of next year will not be so bad – and I think quite possible – that this time it will not suffice the government in general and the Socialist Party in general Special to stay away from Scott. Economics certainly matters and may be what matters most under normal circumstances. But this legislature was not at all normal. And to the foregoing, we must add the hatred aroused by the Prime Minister, who will also have before him a prominent candidate who will move freely in the center. In this case, it is impossible – and I hope not to confuse reality with desire – that he, no matter how much better than likely the economic sentiment, will be able to stop the change in the political cycle that has already begun. The regional and municipal constituents in May will be a good thermometer and will undoubtedly dispel doubts. Political change will pay off in the interest of the economy. It will serve a large part of the population to come to terms with the world and restore the trust they have lost in recent years. It would be useful so that Keynes’ “animal spirits”, who had been angry for some time at this point, would once again fly in force. Something like what’s happening now in Andalusia, but we’ll have time to talk about this later.

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